粤东冰雹的天气特征初步分析及预报

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE WEATHER FEATURES OF HAIL OVER EAST GUANGDONG AND FORECASTING

摘要:

本文收集了1971-1985年粤东地区的28个冰雹天气过程,对降雹的气候特点、环流形势背景、能量场、位势稳定度场、局地大气特征的垂直分布和层结稳定度,以及卫星云图特征进行统计与分析,初步了解了粤东地区春、夏两季降雹前的一些天气特点和它们之间的差异,建立了降雹的四种天气模式、物理量诊断指标,为雷达加强监测、制作冰雹落区的短时预警报提供依据。最后还制作了冰雹的预报框图,供日常预报应用。

Abstract:

This paper has collected 28 of hail days over East Guangdong during 1971-1985. Climatic feature, Circulation type, energy field, geopotential stability field, perpendicular distibution of local atmospheric features, local atmospheric stability, feature of setellite cloud picture and so on have been computed and analysed.The weather features before fall hail and the difference between spring and summer over East Guangdong have been understool preliminarily. Thereby some jndexer of physical quantity and four synoptic models have been established. It provides some bases for the radar enhance observation and made short-time forecasting for fall hail area. At last, the procedure chart has been made as well for applying to operational forecasting.