| 摘要: |
| 本文通过对500hPa上的五个因子场分别与台风中心未来48小时和60小时经纬度的预报量场进行典型相关分析,求出由各因子场组成的典型变量,以此作为预报因子,再结合经实践证明预报效果较好的天气学经验因子,用逐步回归方法建立台风中心未来48小时和60小时的路径预报方程。通过对历史样本的拟合和实际试报,表明该方程的预报能力有明显的提高;典型变量权重系数的地理分布与因子场的天气学意义基本吻合。 |
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| THE APPLICATION OF CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS IN THE PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS |
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Chen Xiaoyuan, Yu Shanxian, Li Hanhui
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Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, the canonical correlation analysis between the predictand of Typhoon track in the future 48h & 60h and five predictor fields at the 500 hPa are analysed respectively. We use the canonical variables as predictors which have been derived, then combine with empirical predictors in weather forecasting adopting stepwise regression to establish the prediction equation of typhoon central position in the future 48h and 60h. The results of independent sample tests indicate taat the scheme can improve the prediction of the typhoon track and that it is useful in operational forecasting practice. |
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