用GMS云图作登陆台风降水预报的方法研究

A STUDY OF THE LANDFALLING TYPHOON PRECIPITATION FORECAST TECHNIQUE USING GMS IMAGERY

摘要:

本文通过10个登陆我国的台风的157个时次GMS云图及6小时雨量图进行分析,分别给出了登陆台风的过程最大降雨量估计及其出现的地区,时段和台风登陆前后(包括减弱成低气压阶段)的6小时降水量预报方法,同时还分别以实例说明了它们的应用,最后给出了操作流程图。这个方法是卫星云图的应用由定性向半定量化方面深入的一个尝试。

Abstract:

Each 3-hour precipitation of eye wall cloud area (EWA), central dense overcast (CDO), outer banding cloud area(OBA)and areas of embedded cold convective cloud tops(ECA)that are four parts of typhoon cloud system is obtained from statistical analysis of 157 times GMS images and 6-hour precipitation maps in 10 landfalling typhoons, respectively. According to this, a technique of total maximum precipitation estimation and its appearance of area and time,and precipitation forecast every 6-hour during typhoon landfall (including typhoon weaked into cyclone) is presented, respectively.In meantime, this technical application is illustrated and operational division tree is shown. The technique is a useful test for satellite imagery from qualitative to semi-quantitative application.