广东省前汛期暴雨专家系统

HEAVY RAIN FORECASTING EXPERT SYSTEM FOR EARLIER RAIN SEASON IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

摘要:

本文介绍一个广东前汛期暴雨预报专家系统,它总结了广东前汛期业务工作中利用多年,效果较好的暴雨预报经验。在微机上分别建立资料库、规则库及有关服务程序。模拟预报员的思维方法进行简单的推理,制作广东前汛期有无暴雨预报和暴雨落区预报。此外,还建立了强迫学习系统。该系统于1986年4月1日开始正式投入业务使用,二年来暴雨有无预报成功率是68.8%,落区预报成功率66.6%。

Abstract:

A forecasting expert system for heavy rain in Guangdog province during its first flood season is introduced in this paper. The system, which develops on IBM PC/XT computer with dBASE Ⅲ and compiler BASIC language, is based on aser-ies of fairly useful experiences concerning torrential rain forecasts for the season. Supported by its data base, rule base and related service programs, the system is capable of simulating forecaster's way of thinking to perform the yes/no judgement and forecasting where it would have heavy rain by simple reasoning. Driving a multilevel menu, the forecaster can arbitrarily and conveniently change various parameters for obtaining intermidiate results and/or some other valuable charts and tables as well, before the man-machine interactional forecasting conclusion is reached. Besides, a forced-study sub-system is set up to provide the system with a capability of renewing experiential rules. A two-year operation verification since April 1,1986 proved that the successrate of yes/no and falling area forecasts of the expert system are 68.8% and 66.6%, respectively.