关于台风非对称结构与台风路径的数值分析

A NUMERICAL ANALYSIS ABOUT ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE AND TYPHOON MOTION

关键词:  台风非对称结构  台风移动路径  套网格模式

Key words:  Typhoon asymmetric structure  Typhoon movement  Nested model

摘要:

采用一个有限区域原始方程双向相互作用的移动套网格台风路径数值预报模式,对1992年的两个台风进行了5个个例预报试验,结果表明预报路径和实况有很好的一致性。通过对预报个例的台风非对称结构进行分析,发现非对称结构随时间变化与台风移动路径有着比较密切的联系。如能了解实际台风的非对称结构,将有助于提高台风路径预报的水平。

Abstract:

In this paper,five cases of prediction experiments for two typhoons in 1992 are carried out using a limited-area two-way movable nested primitive equation model for typhoon track prediction. The results show that the predicted tracks are well consistent with the observations. By analysing the asymmetric structure of predicted typhoon cases,we find that the evolution of typhoon asymmetric structure is closely related to typhoon's movement. This means that the understanding of realistic typhoon asymmetric structure would enhance our ability for forecasting typhoon tracks.