| 摘要: |
| 利用卡尔曼滤波方法预报南海热带气旋路径,发现采用卡尔曼滤波可以大大地降低预报误差,提高预测模型的预报能力。 |
| 关键词: 卡尔曼滤波 预测模型 预报误差 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
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| THE STUDY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS PREDICTION OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA |
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Liu Chunxia1, Zhou Jiabin2
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1.Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology, Guangzhou, 510080;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science
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| Abstract: |
| The least predicting error sum of square(PRESS) and Kalmanfilter were applied to build predicting model in this paper. Firstly, we constructed a model on the basis of PRESS. Then, the prediction model was amended by Kalmanfilter. The predicted results showed that more forecasting errors of PRESS model were reducedd than by stepwise regression analysis, and the filtered forecasting distance errors of tropical cyclone weree less than unfiltered forcasting (less than 200km). So we suggested this prediction method is good for tropical cyclone tracks prediction. |
| Key words: PRESS Kalman filtering Tropical cyclone prediction Forecasting error |
