| 摘要: |
| 根据历史资料,应用投影寻踪回归(PPR)的基本思想和算法,建立了台风季节台风登陆华南年频次的PPR预测模型。结果表明PPR模型的预测精度优于逐步回归建模的预测精度。 |
| 关键词: 台风 台风预报 投影寻踪 投影寻踪回归 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:四川省应用基础研究基金 |
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| FORECASTING MODEL OF NUMBERS OF LANDED TYPHOON BASED ON PROJECTION PURSUIT REGRESSION |
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Li Zuoyong, Deng Xinmin, Sang Huaminn
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Chengdu Institute of Meteorology, Chengdu, 610041
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the historical data,a forecasting model of numbers of landed typhoon in South China is proposed using the original idea and its implement algorithm of projection pursuit regression (PPR) during the yearly season of typhoon.The results show that the forecasting precision of PPR model is much better than that of stepwise regression (SR) model. |
| Key words: Typhoon Forecast of typhoon Projection pursuit Projection pursuit regression |
