| 摘要: |
| 应用集成预报方法改进台风路径预报,取得明显效果。对常用的台风路径预报相似模式(TSF)及Markov型相似模式(MTSF)所做预报试验表明:经集成方法改进后的MTSF、TSF,其预报能力有明显提高。 |
| 关键词: 集成预报 厄尔尼诺 台风路径 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:852505攻关课题 |
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| A FORECAST TEST OF TYPHOON TRACK BY MEANS OF CONSENSUS FORECAST TECHNIQUES |
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Li Jianyun1, Ding Yuguo2, Shi Jiuen3
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1.The Seventh Research Institute of Air Force, 100085;2.Nanjing Institute of Meteorology;3.Beijing Institute of Meteorology
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, obvious advances of forecast of Typhoon track by means of consensus forecast techniques are presented. The results of forecast trials show that the forecast capability is obviously improved after the commonly-used Similarity Forecast Model and Markov Similarity Forecast Model are modified by using consensus forecast techniques. |
| Key words: Consensus forecast El Nino Typhoon track |
