| 摘要: |
| 将西北太平洋分为8个海区,分析了广东省汛期(4-9月)降水与各海区海温的关系,并用因子分析法对9-2月各海区的相互关系进行了分析,发现降维后头4个主因子的方差贡献占总方差的82.23%;对主因子的载荷矩阵进行了极大方差旋转,对头4个主因子的物理意义进行了初步的解释。最后建立了汛期各月降水与海温的预报方程,经试报使用,高于近10年的平均业务预报水平,对广东省的汛期降水短期气候预测有较好的参考价值。 |
| 关键词: 海温 汛期降水 极大方差旋转 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:“九五”重中之重项目“我国短期气候系统的研究”96-908-05-07专题资助 |
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| THE RELATION BETWEEN SEASURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE NORTH- WEST PACIFIC OCEAN AND FlOOD SEASON RAINFAll OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE |
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Xie Jiongguang, Ji Zhongping
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The Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, 510080
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| Abstract: |
| In this article we divide the northwest Pacific Ocean in to eight areas, and analyse the relation between GD flood season(April-September)rainfall and the sea areas. And we analyse relations among the eight areas with factor analysis. The main factor affecting GD flood season rainfall is found. Using its Variance of maximum rotation of the loading matrix, we work out the important main factor and the main variate affecting rainfall. In the end, we set up a forecast equation to the flood season with the SST which has been used in forecasting and proved to be superior to the average level of the last ten years' professional forecasting. |
| Key words: SST Flood rainfall Variance of maximum rotation |
