| 摘要: |
| 在引入样条函数的基础上,设计了一种新的非线性动力统计模型及其一整套反演方案,并用由昆明和蒙自逐月雨量和温度构成的局地气候系统对此模型进行了检验。计算结果表明;(1)无论是在拟会历史气候的变化方面,还是在预测未来气候的变化方面,此模型均具有较高的精度;(2)此模型具有良好的稳定性,历史气候变化的拟合精度和未来气候变化的预测精度相差较小。 |
| 关键词: 非线性 动力统计 反演 预报试验 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:云南省教委应用基础课题9812084 |
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| A NEW NONLINEAR DYNAMIC STATISTICAL MODEL AND IT'S FEASIBILITY EXPERIMENT |
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Cao Jie, Tao Yun, Xie Yingqi, Yan Huasheng
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Department of Earth Science, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650091
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| Abstract: |
| On basis of introduced splines, we design a new nonlinear dynamic statistical model and a method of retrieving the model. The model has been tested by the Kunming and the Mengzi local climate system that are construted with the monthly mean rainfall and temperature. The results indicate that the model can effectively simulate and forecast the climate evolution and that it has excelient stability so that there is relatively small difference between the Simulating accuracy and the forecasting accuracy. |
| Key words: Nonlinear Dynamic-statistical Climate change Retrieve Forecast experiment |
