应用卫星云导风进行台风路径预报试验

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTES OF THE PREDICTION OF TYPH00N TRACKS BY USING SATELLITE CLOUD-DERIVED WIND

关键词:  卫星云导风  试验  台风路径预报

Key words:  Satellite cloud-derived wind  Experiments  Prediction oftyphoon tracks

摘要:

在国家气象中心台风数值预报业务系统中引入国家卫星气象中心提供的卫星云导风资料,进行三项预报试验。首先用卫星云导风资料厂正客观分析风场;其次将云导风资料加人到输对称的人造台风模型风场上,使之产生非对称风场、在前两项试验的基础上进行相应的质量场调整,使之形成较协调的客观分析场和非对称的人造台风模型。试验结果表明:卫星云导风资料订正客观分析风场对台风路径预报有明显改进;用云导风形成人造台风模型非对称风场对台风路径预报也有所改进;对订正后的客观分析场进行质量场调整可进一步提高台风路径预报的精度,而对非对称人造台风

Abstract:

The wind field data derived from satellite images which are provided by National Satellite Meteorological Center are led into the numerical weather prediction system of typhoon tracks at National Meteorological Center. Three experiments are done by using them in some cases. The first experiments is to correct the objective analysis wind field. The second one is to attain an asymmetric wind field of bogus vortex. In order to form more harmonic analysis field and asymmetric bogus vortex, mass field is modified based on the above mentioned two experiments. It is shown that the first one has an obvious improvement on the forecast of typhoon tracks; the second one also has some effective effect on the forecast of typhoon tracks; the modification of objective analysis field in the third one can further improve the forecastprecision.