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| 近50年中国华南雨涝变化特征分析 |
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王志伟1, 唐红玉2, 李芬3
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1.山西省卫星遥感减灾服务中心, 山西, 太原, 030002;2.青海省气象台, 青海, 西宁, 810001;3.山西省气象科技服务中心, 山西, 太原, 030002
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| 摘要: |
| 根据1950~2000年50多年的降水资料,用Z指数作为旱涝等级划分标准,把雨涝情况划分成4个等级,并在此基础上计算了雨涝发生的范围。通过研究雨涝范围覆盖率变化趋势和特征,诊断我国华南雨涝发生发展趋势和变化程度。研究发现我国华南地区近50年来雨涝覆盖范围有轻微的下降趋势并具有明显的年代际变化特征;冬半年雨涝覆盖范围有较大的增长趋势,特别是1990年代以来这种趋势更强烈;夏半年雨涝范围趋于减少,呈下降态势,但夏季的雨涝范围在扩大,特别是1990年代以来,夏季雨涝范围扩大的趋势较为明显;前汛期雨涝范围有减少的趋势,而后汛期雨涝范围有明显的扩大趋势。 |
| 关键词: 中国华南 雨涝范围 变化特征 |
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| 基金项目:"中国1950年以来干旱统计及其特征分析"课题(SZ2003C-04)资助 |
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| ANALYSIS OF CHANGING CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOODS IN SOUTH CHINA DURING THE RECENT 50 YEARS |
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WANG Zhi-wei1, TANG Hong-yu2, LI Fen3
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1.Shanxi Satellite Remote-Sensing Center for Reducing Disarsters, Taiyuan 030002, China;2.Qinghai Meteorological Observatory, Xining 810001, China;3.Shanxi Meteorological Science and Technology Serving Center, Taiyuan 030002, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on China's monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2000 and by using Z-index, 4 categories of floods were estimated. Variation and change of floods in South China were analyzed in terms of percentage areas of floods. This study reveals that flood area in South China has a slightly decreasing trend in the latest 50 years. During the winter half year, however, it displayed an increase trend, especially since 1990. It is also found that flood area has deceased during the summer half year from April to September, but increased during summer, especially since 1990. In the early raining period, flood area has a decreasing trend, but it has a strongly increasing trend in the late raining period. The gradual wet trend during the winter the half year results in wetter climate condition for South China,which will be more favorable for spreading some of the epidemic pathogenic bacterium, crop diseases and insect pests. |
| Key words: South China flood area variation |