近50年来东莞气温年际变化的长期特征分析

ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM CHARACTERISTICS OF INTERANNUAL CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE IN DONGGUAN OVER THE RECENT 50 YEARS

关键词:  气候变化特征  统计分析  东莞

Key words:  characteristics of temperature change  statistical analysis  Dongguan city

摘要:

利用东莞1957-2001年的全年和各个季节的气温序列,计算了它们的统计特征量、功率谱、长期趋势和突变现象。结果表明:(1)东莞气温具有明显的季风气候特征,且不呈现正态分布,属于有偏的高峰态或低峰态分布。(2)近50年来,东莞气温总体上呈上升趋势,特别是近10多年来,平均气温迅速上升约1.5℃;而且除了春季以外,其它季节1980年代中期~1990年代初发生了增温突变;这明显反映出改革开放和城市化对东莞气温的影响。(3)除了春季外,其它季节的气温都存在一定的显著振荡周期,有的还含有很强的超长期变化趋势。

Abstract:

Using the series of annual and seasonal temperature during 1957~2001 in Dongguan, the statistical characteristic and power spectrum and secular trend and sudden change phenomena are computed in this paper. From the results it is known that (1) the temperatures have obvious characters of monsoon climate but do not have normal distribution, showing biased distribution of high or low kurtosis;(2) over the recent half-century, temperature tends to rise, specially in last 10 years, in which mean temperature has quickly ascended by about 1.5℃,and except for the spring, there were sudden rising of seasonal temperature from the 1980's to 1990's, which really reflected the influence of developing and opening and urbanization on Dongguan temperature;(3) except for the spring,the temperature of other seasons shows some oscillation periods in Dongguan and some of them also include secular variation trends.