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| 广州大气环境因素与SARS疫情短期变化关系的研究 |
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冯业荣1,2, 朱科伦3, 纪忠萍2, 杜琳4, 王安宇1, 金顺英4
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1.中山大学大气科学系, 广东, 广州, 510275;2.广州中心气象台, 广东, 广州, 510080;3.广州医学院附属第一医院, 广东, 广州, 510182;4.广州市疾病预防与控制中心, 广东, 广州, 510080
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| 摘要: |
| 根据SARS疫情和同期大气环境要素资料,利用时间尺度分离技术、谱分析和相关分析方法,研究大气环境因素对SARS疫情的影响,结果发现大气环境因素与SARS发病有密切关系:广州SARS每日新增病例数和大气要素存在几乎一致的3～5天变化周期,且疫情涨落和大气要素变化间有显著的相关性。由此推论天气变化对SARS疫情起伏有影响。此外,统计结果表明冷空气活动使SARS疫情加重。 |
| 关键词: SARS疫情 大气环境 因素分析 |
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| 基金项目:广东省气象台科研基金资助 |
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| ON THE STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GUANGZHOU ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FACTORS AND THE SARS EPIDEMIC |
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FENG Ye-rong1,2, ZHU Ke-lun3, JI Zhong-ping2, DU Lin4, WANG An-yu1, JIN Shun-ying4
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1.Department of Atmospheric Science, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China;2.Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China;3.The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical Institute, Guangzhou 510182, China;4.Guangzhou Center for Disease Control, Guangzhou 510080, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on SARS epidemic data and the corresponding atmospheric data, we used the timescale-partitioning technique, spectrum analysis and correlation analysis to investigate the impacts of the atmospheric environmental factors on the SARS epidemics. Results showed that there were close relations between environmental factors and SARS: The daily probable cases of SARS varied in 3-5 day cycles, much the same as the atmospheric elements did. The variations of the epidemics correlated remarkably with atmospheric elements. So conclusions can be drawn that weather changes have influences on the variations of daily SARS cases. In addition, statistical results showed that cold air activities aggravated the SARS epidemics. |
| Key words: SARS atmospheric environment factor analysis |