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| 近50年南海热带气旋时空分布特征及其海洋影响因子 |
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李春晖1, 刘春霞1, 程正泉2
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1.中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/中国气象局热带季风重点开放实验室, 广东, 广州, 510080;2.广东省气象台, 广东, 广州, 510080
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| 摘要: |
| 用中国气象局组织整编的《台风年鉴》资料和全球近表层简易海洋数据同化(SODA)资料,研究了近50年南海海域生成和经过的热带气旋位置点频数的时空分布特征及其海洋影响因子。结果表明,6～10月的热带气旋位置点频数表现出明显的地理分布集聚性特征,主要分布在南海15～22°N海域,并有明显的年代际变化特征。在1975年以前,海洋因子对南海海域生成和经过的热带气旋位置点频数的影响主要以La Niña和类La Niña事件为主,1975年之后以El Niño和类El Niño事件为主。 |
| 关键词: 南海 热带气旋位置点频数 时空分布 影响因子 |
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| 基金项目:广东省科技计划项目“广东干旱年景预测技术研究”(2005B32601007);热带海洋气象科学研究基金项目“南海台风-浪-风暴潮耦合试验及台风灾害预估”共同资助 |
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| THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS AFFECTING OCEANIC FACTORS IN THE PAST 50YRS |
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LI Chun-hui1, LIU Chun-xia1, CHENG Zheng-quan2
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1.Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/The key open laboratory for tropical monsoon, CMA, Guangzhou 510080, China;2.Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China
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| Abstract: |
| The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies over the South China Sea areas and its affecting factors in the past 50yrs are analyzed based on typhoon data that provided by CMA and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA).The results show that the tropical cyclone frequencies from June to October show concentrated geographic distribution,for they mainly distribute over the SCS area from 15~20°N.The characteristics present significant interdecadal changes.The impact of oceanic factors on the tropical cyclone frequencies in the SCS area is mainly realized by La Niña and La Niña-like events before 1975 but mainly by El Niño and El Niño-like events after 1975. |
| Key words: South China Sea tropical cyclone frequencies temporal and spatial distribution affecting factors |