| 摘要: |
| 利用非线性理论,同时考虑影响海南省热带气旋(TC)的内部和外部因素,建立了海南省汛期月TC影响频数的相空间投影预测模型,经2000～2005年6年汛期的预测检验表明,总准确率达到88.9%,预测效果明显高于目前短期气候预测业务水平。 |
| 关键词: 热带气旋 月预测 相空间投影 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:海南省气象科技创新基金项目HN2006ZY07资助 |
|
| A PHASE SPACE PROJECTIVE METHOD FOR MONTHLY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS |
|
WU Hui1,2
|
|
1.Hainan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Haikou 570203, China;2.South China Sea Meteorology and Disaster Mitigation Research Key Laboratory, Haikou 570203, China
|
| Abstract: |
| In this paper,based on the nonlinear theory and inner and outer factors of tropical cyclones affecting the Hainan province,models for forecasting TC monthly frequency were set up in phase space.Verifications of trial forecasts show that total forecast accuracy reaches 88.9% in the rainy season from 2000 to 2005.The forecast of this method has much better effects than the present operational long-range forecast does. |
| Key words: tropical cyclone monthly forecast phase space projective method |
