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| 华南地区未来地面温度和降水变化的情景分析 |
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黄晓莹,温之平,杜尧东,许吟隆
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1.广州中心气象台, 广东, 广州, 510080;2.中山大学环境科学与工程学院大气科学系, 广东, 广州, 510275;3.广东省气候与农业气象中心, 广东, 广州, 510080;4.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室, 北京, 100081
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| 摘要: |
| 利用英国Hadley气候预测和研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS,模拟分析基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)2000年发布的《排放情景特别报告》(SRES)中设计的B2情景下华南区域2071～2100年的温度和降水量的可能变化,结果显示:2071～2100年均地面温度相对于气候基准时段(1961～1990年)上升约2～4℃;华南区域未来夏季降水量在22°N以北区域较气候基准时段增加,而以南区域减少;冬季降水则表现为华南区域较气候基准时段减少。2071～2100年华南区域的温度气候趋势系数为正值,年均降水气候趋势系数为负值。2071～2100年的高温事件和强降水事件的发生频率均比气候基准时段明显增加。 |
| 关键词: PRECIS SRES B2情景 华南地区 地面温度 降水 气候变化 |
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| 基金项目:国家科技攻关2004BA611B02课题;中英气候变化合作研究项目共同资助 |
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| SCENARIO ANALYSES ON THE CHANGES OF FUTURE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA |
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HUANG Xiao-ying1,2, WEN Zhi-ping2, DU Yao-dong3,4,5, XU Yin-long4,6
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1.Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China;2.Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;3.Climatic and Agrimeteorological Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080, China;4.Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment &5.Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of;6.Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the results simulated by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies),which is developed in the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation under SRES B2 scenario in South China during 2071～2100 are analyzed.It is shown that,compared to baseline(1961～1990),surface air temperature in 2071～2100 would increase by 2～4 ℃,precipitation in summer would increase in the north part to 22 °N,while the precipitation in winter would decrease in the whole areas of South China.The climate trend of the surface air temperature would be positive,however the climate trend of the precipitation would be negative,the occurrence frequency of extremely high temperature events and extremely heavy precipitation events would increase. |
| Key words: PRECIS SRES B2 South China surface air temperature precipitation climate change |