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| 影响宁夏的热带气旋远距离暴雨特征和预报概念模型 |
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闫军1,2,3, 王黎娟4, 纪晓玲5,3, 薛宏宇6, 谭志强6, 任小芳6, 邵建5,3
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1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，江苏 南京 210044;2. 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室/宁夏回族自治区气象防灾减灾重点实验室，宁夏 银川750002;3. 宁夏回族自治区气象台，宁夏 银川 750002;4.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，江苏 南京 210044;5.2. 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室/宁夏回族自治区气象防灾减灾重点实验室，宁夏 银川 750002;6.宁夏回族自治区气象台，宁夏 银川 750002
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| 摘要: |
| 利用JMA最佳TC路径资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，普查了1961—2010年宁夏的暴雨个例，并对影响宁夏的热带气旋远距离暴雨进行了统计和合成分析。结果表明：宁夏各测站远距离暴雨日数在暴雨总日数中普遍占比达30%～46%，是宁夏暴雨类型里十分重要的一类。远距离暴雨主要集中发生在8月，较宁夏暴雨气候多发期推迟10～20天。台湾岛及其以东洋面和海南岛附近是宁夏产生远距离暴雨的热带气旋高频影响关键区，在两个TC高频影响区域之间还存在一个少台风甚至无台风影响的海域。进一步诊断分析表明，热带气旋、中纬度槽(涡)、副热带高压、水汽通道及高空急流是产生远距离暴雨的主要影响系统。根据诊断特征将远距离暴雨分为两类，揭示其环流差异主要体现在热带气旋和副高位置、水汽输送通道及海平面气压场，并在此基础上归纳了两类远距离暴雨的预报概念模型。 |
| 关键词: 热带气旋 远距离暴雨 统计特征 预报概念模型 宁夏 |
| DOI：10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2020.004 |
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| CHARACTERISTICS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF TROPICAL-CYCLONE-INDUCED REMOTE PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN NINGXIA |
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YAN Jun,WANG Li-juan,JI Xiao-ling,XUE Hong-yu,TAN Zhi-qiang,REN Xiao-fang,SHAO Jian
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1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/ Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions/ Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,
CMA, Yinchuan 750002, China;3. Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yinchuan 750002, China;4.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/ Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;5.Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yinchuan 750002, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the precipitation data of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Japan Meteorological Agency best track data set of tropical cyclones and the NCEP reanalysis data during 1961—2010, the tropical cyclone remote precipitation (TRP) in Ningxia is discussed. The analysis shows that 30%～45% Ningxia torrential rain processes are TRP events (TRPs), which are a very important type of heavy rain in Ningxia. High frequency of TRPs occurs in August, about 10～20 days later than the torrential rain climatic peak period of Ningxia. The analysis also shows that there are two regions with high frequency of tropical cyclones when the TRPs occur, i.e., the oceanic area east of the island of Taiwan and the area around Hainan island. Between these two regions, there is one region with low frequency of tropical cyclones. The diagnostic analysis results show that tropical cyclones, mid-latitude troughs, subtropical high, and upper and low-level jet all play a key role in the occurrence of the TRPs. Given the above two regions with high frequency of tropical cyclones, the TRPs are divided into two categories. The prominent differences between these two categories are the location of subtropical high, the moisture channels and the sea level pressure distributions. Two kinds of conceptual models of Ningxia TRPs are obtained in the end. |
| Key words: tropical cyclone remote precipitation statistical characteristics conceptual models Ningxia |