华南热带气旋影响时段的短期气候集成预测

AN INTEGRATED PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE CLIMATE IN SOUTH CHINA DURING THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

关键词:  华南  热带气旋  影响时段  短期气候预测  检验

Key words:  south China  tropical cyclones  influence period  climate prediction  verification

摘要:

利用华南沿海代表站逐日历史资料和南海附近区域再分析格点资料，采用灰色拓扑预测、天文周期、阴阳历叠加等方法，建立非线性综合集成预测模型，对上述站点和区域的逐日气压、降水量等要素进行气候预测；通过分析沿海各代表站气压谷值、降水峰值的出现时间、以及南海区域气压场中低压环流的位置和动态，综合确定年内影响华南的热带气旋可能出现的时间段和区域。该方法在广东省气象台投入业务应用多年，经检验近5年（7—9月台风活跃季节）热带气旋影响时段的平均预测准确率达到70%左右。

Abstract:

Based on the daily data of the representative stations along south China coast and the NCEP/ NCAR reanalyzed data near the South China Sea, we constructed a nonlinear forecasting model by using astronomical period, composition of solar and lunar calendar, grey topological prediction method and weight regressive analysis method. Then we used this nonlinear forecasting model to predict the daily pressure and precipitation in these regions. The distribution and variation of the valley of pressure and the peak of precipitation, along with the position and movement of the depression in the area near the South China Sea, were analyzed to determine when and where TCs affect south China. This method has been put into operation for over 10 years in Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, and the accuracy of the affected period prediction in recent 5 years (during July to September) is about 70%.