低纬高原地区短时强降水与雷电活动相关性研究

STUDY ON CORRELATION BETWEEN SHORT-TERM HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN LOW LATITUDE PLATEAU

关键词:  短时强降水  雷电活动  地闪概率  多元回归  模型验证

Key words:  short-term heavy precipitation  lightning activity  probability of ground flash  multiple regression  model validation

摘要:

为了研究短时强降水过程与雷电活动过程的相关性，统计了2012—2016年云南省126个国家级气象站的短时强降水次数和降水量，以及强降水时段内、强降水前1小时站点周边50公里、30公里、10公里半径范围内的地闪次数。运用概率统计理论分析强降水过程发生时、过程前1小时周边不同尺度范围内地闪发生的概率。同时应用相关回归方法分析短时强降水过程降水量与地闪次数的相关性，建立多元回归方程，并对方程进行验证。研究结果表明：低纬高原地区春夏季节，80%的短时强降水过程伴随有闪电活动发生，70%左右的短时强降水过程前1小时，就有闪电活动发生。同时，短时强降水过程降水量与地闪次数存在函数对应关系，在一定程度上，地闪次数可作为区域强降水过程降水量的预测因子之一。

Abstract:

To study the correlation between short-term heavy precipitation and lightning activity, the present study calculated the frequency and precipitation of short-term heavy rainfall in 127 national meteorological stations in Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2016, and the number of ground flashes within the radius of 50 kilometers, 30 kilometers and 10 kilometers around the stations during heavy precipitation and 1 hour before the heavy precipitation. Probability theory and statistics was used to analyze the probability of lightning at different scales in the surrounding regions during heavy precipitation and 1 hour before the process. In addition, the correlation regression method was used to analyze the correlation between the precipitation in short-term heavy rainfall and the number of lightning flashes at different scales in the mainland, set up the multiple regression equation and verify it. The results show that from spring to summer in the low-latitude plateau region, lightning activity occurs in 80% of the short-term heavy precipitation process and occurs one hour before 70% of the short-term heavy precipitation process. At the same time, there is a functional correspondence between precipitation during short-term heavy rainfall and the number of ground flashes. The number of ground flashes may be used as one of the predictors of precipitation during regional heavy precipitation processes.