1981—2020年安徽省不同重现期最大风速和极大风速时空变化特征

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AND EXTREME WIND SPEED IN ANHUI PROVINCE DURING DIFFERENT RECURRENCE INTERVALS FROM 1981 TO 2020

关键词:  最大风速  极大风速  重现期  极值Ⅰ型分布  安徽省

Key words:  maximum wind speed  extreme wind speed  recurrence interval  Type-I extreme value distribution  Anhui Province

摘要:

分别从质量控制级别、有效数据完整率、是否均一等方面考虑，选取安徽省51个气象站1981—2020年逐日10 min最大风速和2006—2020年逐日极大风速资料，基于最大风速资料应用阵风系数法构建1981—2005年极大风速，得到1981—2020年极大风速的长时间序列数据；对风速资料进行拟合适度检验，估算了安徽省不同重现期最大风速和极大风速的时间变化以及空间分布，并对极大风速序列延长前后重现期估算情况进行了对比。结果表明：(1) 利用阵风系数法构建的极大风速数据可信，可为因缺少长时间序列的极大风速观测而无法进行50年或者更长重现期估算提供参考；(2) 1981—2020年安徽省历年最大风速强度为12.38 m/s，极大风速强度为20.55 m/s，均为皖南低矮山区的风速值较低，沿江西部及江淮之间中部处于相对大值区；(3) 30年重现期最大风速为12.09～27.23 m/s，50年为12.64～29.01 m/s，均是石台站最小，桐城站最大；30年重现期的极大风速为23.51～39.56 m/s，50年为24.58～41.93 m/s，均为池州站最小，桐城站最大；(4) 短期的观测资料会降低重现期估算结果的可靠性。

Abstract:

Considering the data quality control level, effective data integrity rate and uniformity, we decided to use the daily 10min maximum wind speed data from 1981 to 2020 and the daily extreme wind speed data from 2006 to 2020 from 51 meteorological stations in Anhui Province. Based on the maximum wind speed data, the gust coefficient method was adopted to obtain the extreme wind speed from 1981 to 2005 and the long time series of extreme wind speed data from 1981 to 2020. We also performed a Kolmogorov-Sminov test on the wind speed data and estimated the temporal variation and spatial distribution of the maximum and the extreme wind speeds in Anhui Province. The recurrence intervals of extreme wind speed before and after series extension were also compared. The results are as follows: (1) the extreme wind speed data obtained by using the gust coefficient method are reliable, which can provide reference for the estimates for 50-year or longer recurrence interval which otherwise would be impossible due to the lack of long time series of extreme wind speed observational data. (2) From 1981 to 2020, the maximum wind speed in Anhui Province was 12.38 m/s, and the extreme wind speed was 20.55 m/s. Wind speed was low in the low mountainous areas in southern Anhui, whereas it became higher in the western part of the Yangtze River and the area between the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins. (3) The maximum wind speed during the 30-year recurrence interval was between 12.09 m/s and 27.23 m/s, and that during the 50-year recurrence interval was between 12.64 m/s and 29.01 m/s, both of which were the smallest at the Shitai Meteorological Station and the largest at the Tongcheng Meteorological Station. The extreme wind speed during the 30-year recurrence interval was between 23.51 m/s and 39.56 m/s, and that during the 50-year recurrence interval was between 24.58 m/s and 41.93 m/s, both of which were the smallest at the Chizhou Meteorological Station and the largest at the Tongcheng Meteorological Station. (4) Short-term observational data will reduce the reliability of the estimates for recurrence intervals.