| 摘要: |
| 通过对 1970 年以来陕西偏强秋淋天气与我国东南沿海台风活动特征分析发现，两者之间有较好的相关性，且存在一定的先兆性，发现移过西太平洋 125 °E 以西的目标台风活动对陕西秋淋天气的影响作用明显。结果表明：在陕西秋淋偏强的年份，台风活动为陕西秋淋天气提供了有利的气候背景，同期台风路径以西行或西北行路径为主，而台风登陆位置影响着陕西秋淋天气主要出现的地区。利用近海台风的先兆性特征，陕西秋淋的年代变化特征和不同周期等特征，对 2017—2022 年陕西秋淋降水进行预测、预判的试报，结果较为理想，该方法可为陕西预判秋淋偏强年份的预报提供一种客观的气候预测方法和依据。 |
| 关键词: 秋淋天气 近海台风 演变特征 环流分析 预测和检验 |
| DOI：10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.039 |
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| Precursory Signals for Autumn Rain in Shaanxi Province: An Analysis and Hindcast Experiment with a Focus on Offshore Typhoons |
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DU Lili,MAO Mingce,CHEN Xiaoting,XU Jia,QI Chunjuan,HOU Jianzhong
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1. Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory, Xi’an 710014, China;2. Shaanxi Climate Center, Xi’an 710014, China;3. Shaanxi Atmospheric Sounding Technical Support Center, Xi’an 710014, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the analysis of the characteristics of strong autumn rain in Shaanxi and typhoon activities along the southeast coast of China since 1970, it is found that the typhoon activities west of 125 °E in the western Pacific Ocean exhibited certain precursory signals that could be linked to the strong autumn rain in Shaanxi. Results show that typhoon activities provided favorable climatic background for autumn precipitation in the years with heavy autumn rain in Shaanxi. During the same period, typhoon paths were mainly westward or northwestward, and the landing locations of typhoons affected the areas where autumn rain mostly occurred in Shaanxi. Based on the precursory signals exhibited by offshore typhoons and the temporal variation and periodicity of autumn precipitation in Shaanxi, a trial hindcast of autumn rain from 2017 to 2022 in Shaanxi was conducted, and the results were relatively satisfactory. This method may serve as an objective climate prediction method for the forecast of strong autumn precipitation in Shaanxi. |
| Key words: autumn precipitation offshore typhoon variation characteristics circulation analysis prediction and evaluation |
