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云南台风降水特征及DSAEF_LTP模型降水模拟研究
文刚1, 马蕴琦2,3, 张明欣4, 丁晨晨5, 王国芳1, 耿浩1
1. 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,云南 昆明 650217;2. 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,河南 郑州 450003;3. 河南省气象台,河南 郑州 450003;4. 云南机场集团有限责任公司丽江机场,云南 丽江 674100;5. 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081
摘要:
针对云南地区,利用1960—2019年中国气象局上海台风研究所台风最佳路径资料、国家气象信息中心地面逐日降水资料进行统计分析,研究了影响云南的 221 个历史台风活动特征和降水特征,并基于登陆台风的动力统计相似集合预报(DSAEF_LTP)模型对 2016—2019 年的 5 个目标台风进行模拟,结果显示:(1) 平均每年有 3.7个台风影响云南,数量呈现减少趋势;影响季节主要集中在 7—9月,其中 7—8月最盛;影响期间最大强度以强热带风暴和台风级别为主。影响路径通常为西北行和西行路径,登陆点多集中在海南岛、广东西部和广西沿海,移动到云南的台风较少;(2) 221 个影响云南的历史台风中共有 119 个产生暴雨量级的日降水,台风暴雨平均日降水量比普通暴雨更大。从空间分布来看,云南北部台风暴雨频次相对较高,但极值降水更易发生在云南南部;(3) DSAEF_LTP 模型整体预报效果较好,成功模拟出了台风的降水中心,且相对数值模式预报结果具有一定优势,对云南的台风强降水预报有指示意义。
关键词:  台风  暴雨特征  DSAEF_LTP模型  降水模拟  云南
DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.070
分类号:
基金项目:
Precipitation Characteristics and DSAEF_LTP Model Precipitation Simulation of Typhoons Affecting Yunnan Province
WEN Gang1, MA Yunqi2,3, ZHANG Mingxin4, DING Chenchen5, WANG Guofang1, GENG Hao1
1. Electric Power Science Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650217, China;2. Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, CMA, Zhengzhou 450003, China;3. Henan Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou 450003, China;4. Lijiang Airport of Yunnan Airport Group Co., Ltd., Lijiang, Yunnan 674100, China;5. Public Meteorological Service Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:
Based on the best track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for the period 1960-2019 and daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Information Center, this study investigated the characteristics of 221 historical typhoons affecting Yunnan province. Furthermore, the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation was employed to simulate the precipitation of five target typhoons from 2016 to 2019. The results are as follows. (1) Over the past five decades, 3.7 typhoons have affected Yunnan every year, and typhoons have become less frequent. The peak typhoon season was from July to September, with the highest typhoon activities in July and August. The majority of typhoons that affected Yunnan were strong tropical storms and typhoons. Their tracks were mainly northwest and westbound, with landing locations mostly concentrated along the coast of Hainan Island, western Guangdong and Guangxi. (2) Out of the 221 historical typhoons, 119 produced daily precipitation at the rainstorm level, and the average daily precipitation during typhoon rainstorms exceeded that of ordinary rainstorms. Spatially, the frequency of typhoon-induced rainstorms was relatively higher in northern Yunnan, while extreme precipitation events were more likely to occur in southern Yunnan. (3) The DSAEF_LTP model demonstrated good overall performance, successfully simulating the precipitation center of these typhoons. The model’s results exhibited certain advantages over those of numerical models and may facilitate the prediction of strong precipitation associated with typhoons in Yunnan.
Key words:  typhoon  rainstorm characteristics  DSAEF_LTP Model  precipitation simulation  Yunnan Province
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