| 摘要: |
| 本模式的建立方法,原则上与通常的气候持续性模式一样,特点是强化了气候学因子。对于每一个初始位置和初始速度提供了一条气候路径,这一气候路径的各时段位移分量作为气候学因子,供筛选使用。1983年台汛季节,曾对14个台风作了187次业务预报,效果尚好。 |
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| AN IMPROVED STATISTICAL PREDICTION MODLE OF TYPHOON TRACKS OVER WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN BASED. ON, PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS |
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Wu Zhoughai, Wu Tianquan, Li Duowu
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Shanghai Typhoon Institute
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| Abstract: |
| The method in this P.C.modle is the same in principle as those used in general P.C.modles with distinguishing feature in that:for every initial position and initial displacement vector a climatological track is provided from-which displacement vector of the following 6h,12h etc,may be obtained as climatological factors for later screening.we made 187 operational forecasts for 14 typhoon cases in 1983 and obtained rather good results in forecasting tracks. |
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