| 摘要: |
| 本文根据雨量资料划分出华南前汛期发生旱涝的年份。提出用前期北半球500百帕的月平均环流特征作为预报因子,采取二次判别函数建立预报方程.所得方程的历史拟合率高,可供预报业务工作应用。 |
| 关键词: |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:热带气象基金资助课题 |
|
| THE LONG RANGE PREDICTION OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD FOR THE FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINABY DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS |
|
Wang Demin
|
|
Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
|
| Abstract: |
| Based on the precipitation data some years of drought and flood for the first rainy season over South China are Searated.Some characteristics of the monthly mean height fields at 500 hpa over the norhern hemisphere are presented as predictors.By applying the quardic discriminant function, the predictive equations are constructed.These equations with high accuracy rate can be applied to practice. |
| Key words: |
